BTC short term analysis 26th June 2026
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The BTC market appears to be entering a period where a bottoming process is likely to develop. The decline from mid-May has now moved into the synced low (The Principle of Synchronicity), with price falling around 30% from the highs. We also saw the sweep of the low discussed a few days ago. While there is still scope for one final flush lower, such a move could present a much lower-risk opportunity for a move back towards the range highs. That said, momentum remains flat and recent upside attempts have struggled. While it is likely a bottom is in the process of forming, no low has been confirmed. For now, the bias has shifted from bearish to neutral. At these levels, I don’t believe it is a market to be aggressively bearish, as the conditions are gradually becoming more supportive of stability and an upward move once confirmation is in place. The first significant resistance remains around the 64k region (on the Q and SR). There is currently no evidence that the final low is in place, and the broader backdrop still includes elevated implied volatility and continued dollar strength Looking beyond crypto, there are clear signs of instability beneath the surface of the equity market. Stocks such as MSFT are under pressure, while only a handful of AI-related names have accounted for much of the broader market’s gains. Combined with what appears to be a major low in TLT and signals coming from the VIX, the evidence continues to point towards increased market instability. For that reason, I believe it remains sensible to stay focused on the short term with BTC rather than anticipate the start of a sustained bullish phase, particularly given the weakness of the previous trend.